Ultimate Fight Night 74 Predictions
Ok we are back at it again with UFN 74. Before we get into our pick for this card, we are going to take a quick look at how we did on the last card. At UFN 73 I suggested betting big on Uriah Hall even though he was a big favorite to win. The bet was risk $300 to win $80 and and it paid. As for Draft Kings, well that didn’t go so well due to a couple of upsets and a split decision loss on my end. Onto the betting advice.
Due to the unknowns on this card, I cannot say who is a good underdog to pick for Draft Kings. Because what it comes down to is finding the right lesser known fighter and hoping he hits a quick finish. The only thing I will say about this card is that the main event between Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira is that Oliveira has a greater chance than people are giving him. Of course every time I have discounted the Hawaiian, he has shown up big time, so take that how you will.
I’m going with two favorites, but not in a parlay. The reasoning is that parlays are harder to hit and only take one person to screw it up. There will be times when I suggest a parlay, but this card, is not one of them. There’s two fights that I like, the first is Misha Cirkunov vs. Daniel Jolly as Jolly is a late replacement. Cirkunov is sitting at -380 right now and we will bet 2 units on him to win .53 units (I’ll translate in a minute). While both fighters are making their UFC debut, Cirkunov is the local in this event and typically a late replacement plus not having to travel equals a good night for him. The other fight I like is Olivier Aubin-Mercer versus Tony Sims. Aubin-Mercer has a bit more ring experience than Sims plus he trains out of Tristar. He is also a favorite at -224 and we will be betting 1.5 units to win .67 units.
Ok let’s translate how MMA betting works. A favorite, is someone who is – and an underdog is someone who is +. For simplistic sakes if someone is -200, then you would need to bet $200 (2 units) to win $100 (1 unit). If someone is a +200 underdog then you would win $200 (2 units) by betting $100 (1 unit). So with our fantasy fake money betting, we are placing $150 on Aubin-Mercer to win $66.94 and we are placing $200 on Cirkunov to win $52.63.
Tags: UFN 74
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